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Dori Wick
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Date Archives: August 2022

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August
11

Economic News from Idaho Central Credit Union

 

 

Unexpectedly Strong Job Gains Across the Board

With the release of last week's Employment report, the United States reported unexpectedly strong job gains across the board. With this stronger than expected economic data, mortgage rates received an unfavorable reaction.

Overall, the key labor market report far exceeded the forecasts. Thus, mortgage rates ended the week higher.

Employment Report Reveals Unexpectedly Strong Job Gains

Every month, the Employment report represents the most highly anticipated data. With Friday's release, the data revealed unexpectedly strong job gains. Against a consensus forecast of 250,000, the economy gained 528,000 jobs in July 2022. Notably, leisure and hospitality displayed the best performance with a gain of 96,000 jobs. Now, the economy holds more jobs than in early 2020, prior to the pandemic.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%. While unemployment fell below the consensus forecast, it also matched the lowest level since 1969. Additionally, investors and analysts look to average hourly earnings for wage growth indications. Overall, the latest average hourly earnings report showed an impressive 5.2% higher than a year ago, well above the consensus forecast.

ISM Reporting Paints Picture of Shifting Consumer Spending

Aside from the unexpectedly strong job gains, the most recent economic indicators from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) painted a picture of shifting consumer spending habits. The national services sector index ended several straight months of declines with an unexpected jump to 56.7, well above the consensus forecast of 54.0.

By contrast, the national manufacturing sector index posted an expected drop to 52.8. Still, levels above 50 indicate sector expansion. Consistent with other recent data, these two reports suggest that consumers are purchasing more services and fewer goods.

Investors Anticipate 75-Basis Point Increase in September

Following news of unexpectedly strong job gains and an expanding National Services Sector Index, investors anticipate another large rate hike in September. Last week, most investors priced in a 50-basis point rate hike. Currently, the majority price in a 75-basis point increase while debating next year's events.

Presently, investors plan for additional rate hikes later this year. Meanwhile, next year should lead to rate cuts as economic growth and inflation decline. Federal Reserve comments suggest that investors price too high a probability of rate cuts next year given the uncertain inflation outlook.

Looking Ahead After Unexpectedly Strong Job Gains

After the unexpectedly strong job gains, investors watch for additional Federal Reserve guidance on the pace of future rate hikes and bond portfolio reduction. Beyond that, they focus on the inflation data.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released on Wednesday. Investors and analysts widely follow CPI for price changes covering a broad range of goods and services. Also, the Producer Price Index (PPI) comes out on Thursday of next week. PPI measures price changes for intermediate goods used to make finished products.

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We understand that no two paths to buying a home are the same. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer or a seasoned real estate mogul, we have a variety of products and loans designed specifically to meet your needs. We offer local underwriting and fast approvals to save you time and money. We have options for down payments and additional resources like our Finally Home! online program to help guide you through the home buying process. Contact one of our home loan specialists to discuss your options today!

 

August
10

Median Home Prices Fall Slightly from June

From our Friends at Boise Regional REALTORS®

Home Prices Adjust to Market Changes

The median sales price for homes in Ada County was $589,990 in July, down 0.4% from June but 9.3% higher than July 2021. Buyers who purchased in recent months faced larger monthly mortgage payments due to higher mortgage interest rates and home prices, which has had a cooling effect on the demand for housing. As a result, home price growth and sales have slowed.  

This point is made more obvious when looking the existing/resale segment, which had a median sales price of $549,000 in July, a 3.7% decrease from the previous month, but a 4.6% increase from a year prior. The existing segment can react more quickly to changes in what buyers are willing or able to pay in contrast to new construction which must factor in land, labor, materials, and other fixed costs into the final home price.  

The month-over-month price declines indicate that the local housing market continues to be driven by supply versus demand, not speculation like we experienced over a decade ago. As demand decreases and supply increases, prices are responding accordingly.  

There were 2,408 homes listed for sale at the end of July, a 128.2% increase from July 2021, and the highest level of inventory we've seen since September 2015. Even with the uptick in inventory, the months supply of inventory in July was 2.8 months, meaning, if no additional homes were listed, the supply of homes would run out in about three months. A "balanced" market, or one that does not favor buyers or sellers, is typically between 4-6 months of supply.  

July also marked the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year declines in the number of sales. There were 685 closed home sales last month, down 33.8% compared to July 2021. There have been 5,370 total sales year-to-date, 707 fewer, or 11.6% less, than this time last year.   

Metrics that indicate competition in the market continued to show signs of normalizing in July. Focusing on the existing/resale segment, homes that closed last month spent an average of 21 days on the market before going under contract, compared to 11 days in July 2021. Additionally, the average original list price received for existing homes in July was 95.6%, which means that on average, buyers paid less than asking through a lower accepted offer, price reductions, or seller concessions. In July 2021, the average original list price received was 101.3%, meaning that on average, buyers paid more than asking price.  

Higher mortgage interest rates have done what the Fed intended and cooled demand for housing, which in turn, has also slowed sales and price growth. However, it's important to remember that 2020 and 2021 were out of the norm for our market — we experienced a surge of demand for housing while we had record low inventory, which drove home prices up at a very rapid rate. Today, we're in the midst of a shift to a more normal market, one where bidding wars are less common, buyers have more time and choices, and appraisals and home inspections don't have to be waived in order for an offer to even be considered.

Whether you're ready to buy today or would like to purchase within the next two, five, or even ten years, work with trusted advisors to make a plan to reach your goals. Taking important steps today, such as improving your credit, researching down payment programs, and saving for your down payment in a tax-sheltered savings account can really make a difference when you're ready to make a move.

To view the Treasure Valley homes currently for sale, CLICK HERE.

August
1

Plan Ahead for These Boise Festivals

Boise Festivals

Boise homes for sale are some of the most desirable in the region, and there's something here for everyone. But our real estate agents know that the decision is even bigger than what property you choose. It's about joining a community where you can truly feel at home.

Take a look at everything Boise has to offer, and you'll see yourself living here!

As the capital of Idaho, one of Boise's unique strengths is its busy social calendar. Whether you love music, art, food, or all of the above, downtown Boise is the happening place to be.

Let's check in with some of the most popular summer events:

  • Fridays on 34th Market & Music – 303 East 34th Street, Garden City, ID 83714
    Fridays on 34th Market & Music is a recurring local event that takes place on Fridays near Garden City homes for sale. A recent innovation by the community's active downtown boosters and others, it has already become a local mainstay that attracts families every week. Summer hours run from 4 p.m. to 9 p.m., and there's always new food and music to appreciate. It runs from June all the way through November and will always be found at 34th Street Market.
  • Idaho Halloween & Horror Film Festival – Red Lion Boise Downtowner – 1800 West Fairview Avenue, Boise, ID 83702
    Idaho Halloween & Horror Film Festival is now celebrating its second year. Awards will be presented for a variety of categories spotlighting the original work of local filmmakers. Horror, thriller, suspense, and science fiction entries are accepted. Last year was a breakout success that has been lauded as friendly, fun, and a terrific networking opportunity for both fans and filmmakers. Celebrate horror films when the festival is in town from August 12 through 14. 

  • Boise Soul Food Festival – 700 South Capitol Boulevard, Boise, ID 83702
    Another winner slated to brighten Julia Davis Park, Boise Soul Food Festival will return on Saturday, August 13 this year. From 11 a.m. to 8 p.m., people from all around Boise will have the chance to savor delicious meals from top local brands and competing culinary masters. You can shop for local food, arts and crafts, and much more while you enjoy live music. There will also be cultural workshops discussing more of the history and traditions behind the fun. It is sure to be a great time!

  • Boise Water Lantern Festival – 700 South Capitol Boulevard, Boise, ID 83702
    Taking place within Boise's delightful Julia Davis Park, Boise Water Lantern Festival has been voted the #1 festival in the local area. Attendees will be provided with an LED candle and have the opportunity to float their own paper lantern, complete with their wishes for health and happiness. The festival area is attended by local food trucks and performers, and the water will be fully cleaned up after the event. It will begin at 5:30 p.m. on Saturday, August 27.

  • Spirit of Boise Balloon Classic 2022 – 1000 South Americana Boulevard, Boise, ID 83706
    Found in Ann Morrison Park every year since 1991, Spirit of Boise Balloon Classic 2022 is one of the Boise area's most successful and beloved family events. Tourists and locals alike gather together to see soaring balloons and hear inspiring music. Launches begin early, typically around 7 a.m., assuming the weather cooperates. By mid-day, dozens of balloons will be gliding over Boise's historic landmarks. Events are scheduled from Wednesday through Sunday, August 31 through September 4.

Contact us to find out more about all Boise has to offer.

Disclaimer: All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. All properties are subject to prior sale, change or withdrawal. Neither listing broker(s) or information provider(s) shall be responsible for any typographical errors, misinformation, misprints and shall be held totally harmless. Listing(s) information is provided for consumers personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be interested in purchasing. Information on this site was last updated 08/14/2022. The listing information on this page last changed on 08/14/2022. The data relating to real estate for sale on this website comes in part from the Internet Data Exchange program of INTERMOUNTAIN MLS (last updated Sun 08/14/2022 8:44:04 PM EST). Real estate listings held by brokerage firms other than Coldwell Banker Tomlinson may be marked with the Internet Data Exchange logo and detailed information about those properties will include the name of the listing broker(s) when required by the MLS. All rights reserved. --

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