Home Prices Rise but Rate of Growth Slowed in January
In January 2022, the median sales price for homes in Ada County was $540,000, an increase of 20.0% compared to January 2021, but a slight decrease of 1.1% from the month before.
While the actual median sales price continues to trend upwards, the rate at which it does so has been slowing in recent months. Throughout 2019, we saw fairly steady price growth, and in December 2020, it jumped above 20% year-over-year, reaching a peak of 45.3% in May 2021.
Since then, price growth has slowed, landing at 20.0% in January 2022 — by no means an insignificant year-over-year change, especially for prospective home sellers, but a welcome reprieve from the higher gains we saw last year, especially for prospective homebuyers.
Home price increases continued to be driven by insufficient supply compared to buyer demand — primarily fueled by population growth, migration trends, and increased purchase power due to historically low mortgage rates. The most recent uptick in demand came from people re-thinking how they live and work as a result of the pandemic, contributing to the competitive conditions that enabled the incredible price growth we've seen in the last year.
The metric used to illustrate the supply vs. demand relationship is Months Supply of Inventory (MSI), which takes the number of homes for sale divided by the average number of sales by month for the preceding 12 months. As of January 2022, Ada County was at just 0.3 months for existing homes and 1.0 month for new construction, meaning, if no additional homes were listed, the supply of homes would run out in a matter of weeks. A balanced market — not favoring buyers or sellers — is typically between 4-6 months of supply.
Even though buyer demand has been outpacing supply, weekly listing activity in 2022 has trended up, indicating that an increasing number of homeowners were ready to sell and cash in on the equity their homes have acquired over the last few years.
Listing activity in 2022 has so far been higher than the same period in 2021, but actual weekly listings were down compared to 2019 and pre-pandemic 2020. We'll be watching to see if future weekly listings of existing homes match or exceed those in previous years.
With low, but increasing, inventory, will we continue to see the fast market pace and multiple offer scenarios experienced in 2021? We can't say for sure, but so far Days on Market (DOM), the metric that measures the time between when a property is listed and when it has an accepted offer, has increased and normalized for existing homes.
Days on market for existing homes reached 33 days in January 2022, 18 days longer than in January 2021 and more in line with pre-pandemic levels in early 2020. This is good news for buyers as they may have a bit more time to make decisions and may not feel the need to waive contingencies when writing offers.
Additionally, the Percent of Original List Price Received for existing homes that sold in January 2022 was 97.3%, meaning that, on average, buyers paid less than asking through a lower accepted offer and/or seller concessions. In contrast, the Percent of Original List Price Received for existing home sales in January 2021 was 103.6%, indicating that, on average, buyers were paying more than asking price for homes.
It's hard to say whether these longer, healthier market times were due to increasing prices, increasing mortgage rates, or some combination of the two. While competition may have begun ramping up again, one thing is for sure — our market needs more inventory in order to be more balanced. Homeowners who are considering selling are encouraged to talk to a REALTOR® right away to learn more about thier options. With the appreciation in home prices, there may be more equity than a seller might think.
Other notable statistics from January 2022:
- The median sales price for existing homes in January 2022 was $515,100, 18.4% higher than in January 2021. The median sales price for new construction in January 2022 was $588,945, 28.0% higher than a year ago.
- There were 441 homes available at the end of the month — 63.9% more than in January 2021 — although still very low compared to buyer demand.
- Of the 671 sales in the county, 457 were existing homes, an increase of 30.6% compared to the year prior. Overall sales (existing and new combined) were up 10.5% compared to January 2021.