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Dori Wick
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August
11

 

 

Unexpectedly Strong Job Gains Across the Board

With the release of last week's Employment report, the United States reported unexpectedly strong job gains across the board. With this stronger than expected economic data, mortgage rates received an unfavorable reaction.

Overall, the key labor market report far exceeded the forecasts. Thus, mortgage rates ended the week higher.

Employment Report Reveals Unexpectedly Strong Job Gains

Every month, the Employment report represents the most highly anticipated data. With Friday's release, the data revealed unexpectedly strong job gains. Against a consensus forecast of 250,000, the economy gained 528,000 jobs in July 2022. Notably, leisure and hospitality displayed the best performance with a gain of 96,000 jobs. Now, the economy holds more jobs than in early 2020, prior to the pandemic.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%. While unemployment fell below the consensus forecast, it also matched the lowest level since 1969. Additionally, investors and analysts look to average hourly earnings for wage growth indications. Overall, the latest average hourly earnings report showed an impressive 5.2% higher than a year ago, well above the consensus forecast.

ISM Reporting Paints Picture of Shifting Consumer Spending

Aside from the unexpectedly strong job gains, the most recent economic indicators from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) painted a picture of shifting consumer spending habits. The national services sector index ended several straight months of declines with an unexpected jump to 56.7, well above the consensus forecast of 54.0.

By contrast, the national manufacturing sector index posted an expected drop to 52.8. Still, levels above 50 indicate sector expansion. Consistent with other recent data, these two reports suggest that consumers are purchasing more services and fewer goods.

Investors Anticipate 75-Basis Point Increase in September

Following news of unexpectedly strong job gains and an expanding National Services Sector Index, investors anticipate another large rate hike in September. Last week, most investors priced in a 50-basis point rate hike. Currently, the majority price in a 75-basis point increase while debating next year's events.

Presently, investors plan for additional rate hikes later this year. Meanwhile, next year should lead to rate cuts as economic growth and inflation decline. Federal Reserve comments suggest that investors price too high a probability of rate cuts next year given the uncertain inflation outlook.

Looking Ahead After Unexpectedly Strong Job Gains

After the unexpectedly strong job gains, investors watch for additional Federal Reserve guidance on the pace of future rate hikes and bond portfolio reduction. Beyond that, they focus on the inflation data.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released on Wednesday. Investors and analysts widely follow CPI for price changes covering a broad range of goods and services. Also, the Producer Price Index (PPI) comes out on Thursday of next week. PPI measures price changes for intermediate goods used to make finished products.

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We understand that no two paths to buying a home are the same. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer or a seasoned real estate mogul, we have a variety of products and loans designed specifically to meet your needs. We offer local underwriting and fast approvals to save you time and money. We have options for down payments and additional resources like our Finally Home! online program to help guide you through the home buying process. Contact one of our home loan specialists to discuss your options today!

 

August
10

From our Friends at Boise Regional REALTORS®

Home Prices Adjust to Market Changes

The median sales price for homes in Ada County was $589,990 in July, down 0.4% from June but 9.3% higher than July 2021. Buyers who purchased in recent months faced larger monthly mortgage payments due to higher mortgage interest rates and home prices, which has had a cooling effect on the demand for housing. As a result, home price growth and sales have slowed.  

This point is made more obvious when looking the existing/resale segment, which had a median sales price of $549,000 in July, a 3.7% decrease from the previous month, but a 4.6% increase from a year prior. The existing segment can react more quickly to changes in what buyers are willing or able to pay in contrast to new construction which must factor in land, labor, materials, and other fixed costs into the final home price.  

The month-over-month price declines indicate that the local housing market continues to be driven by supply versus demand, not speculation like we experienced over a decade ago. As demand decreases and supply increases, prices are responding accordingly.  

There were 2,408 homes listed for sale at the end of July, a 128.2% increase from July 2021, and the highest level of inventory we've seen since September 2015. Even with the uptick in inventory, the months supply of inventory in July was 2.8 months, meaning, if no additional homes were listed, the supply of homes would run out in about three months. A "balanced" market, or one that does not favor buyers or sellers, is typically between 4-6 months of supply.  

July also marked the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year declines in the number of sales. There were 685 closed home sales last month, down 33.8% compared to July 2021. There have been 5,370 total sales year-to-date, 707 fewer, or 11.6% less, than this time last year.   

Metrics that indicate competition in the market continued to show signs of normalizing in July. Focusing on the existing/resale segment, homes that closed last month spent an average of 21 days on the market before going under contract, compared to 11 days in July 2021. Additionally, the average original list price received for existing homes in July was 95.6%, which means that on average, buyers paid less than asking through a lower accepted offer, price reductions, or seller concessions. In July 2021, the average original list price received was 101.3%, meaning that on average, buyers paid more than asking price.  

Higher mortgage interest rates have done what the Fed intended and cooled demand for housing, which in turn, has also slowed sales and price growth. However, it's important to remember that 2020 and 2021 were out of the norm for our market — we experienced a surge of demand for housing while we had record low inventory, which drove home prices up at a very rapid rate. Today, we're in the midst of a shift to a more normal market, one where bidding wars are less common, buyers have more time and choices, and appraisals and home inspections don't have to be waived in order for an offer to even be considered.

Whether you're ready to buy today or would like to purchase within the next two, five, or even ten years, work with trusted advisors to make a plan to reach your goals. Taking important steps today, such as improving your credit, researching down payment programs, and saving for your down payment in a tax-sheltered savings account can really make a difference when you're ready to make a move.

To view the Treasure Valley homes currently for sale, CLICK HERE.

August
1

Boise Festivals

Boise homes for sale are some of the most desirable in the region, and there's something here for everyone. But our real estate agents know that the decision is even bigger than what property you choose. It's about joining a community where you can truly feel at home.

Take a look at everything Boise has to offer, and you'll see yourself living here!

As the capital of Idaho, one of Boise's unique strengths is its busy social calendar. Whether you love music, art, food, or all of the above, downtown Boise is the happening place to be.

Let's check in with some of the most popular summer events:

  • Fridays on 34th Market & Music – 303 East 34th Street, Garden City, ID 83714
    Fridays on 34th Market & Music is a recurring local event that takes place on Fridays near Garden City homes for sale. A recent innovation by the community's active downtown boosters and others, it has already become a local mainstay that attracts families every week. Summer hours run from 4 p.m. to 9 p.m., and there's always new food and music to appreciate. It runs from June all the way through November and will always be found at 34th Street Market.

Click Here to Read More...

July
20

DOERS OF GOOD: NORTHERN STAR DOG RESCUE

CBT Realtor® Tom Caples and his wife Amanda put their money where their mouths are. As founders of Northern Star Dog Rescue, the couple saw a need and decided they had to do all they could. We are pleased to feature them as our July Doers of Good.

Both Tom and Amanda have volunteered hundreds of hours at local shelters over the years. As a result, they were witness to the number of dogs – dogs that could have been amazing pets – euthanized because there just wasn't room for them. They may have been "long-timers" or have had some behavioral issues that would have taken a lot of time to correct. They both felt drawn to doing more to help, and NSDR was born in January of 2021.

The mission of NSDR is to assist in saving shelter dogs from euthanasia. "That's about 90% of the dogs we save," says Tom. "The others come may come from hoarding cases or incidents of severe abandonment or abuse. Due to the large number of dogs in shelters, located here in Idaho, as well as in other states such as Utah, Texas, and Arizona, many dogs who are not immediately adopted are being euthanized. Most of the dogs we save have literally minutes left before we swoop in to save them."

The organization is 100% foster-based, meaning there is no actual "shelter" location. The dogs rescued from their dire circumstances are placed in homes, which helps them "decompress from the stresses of being in a shelter or from being neglected," Tom explains. "We believe this helps our dogs be more successful in transitioning to permanent homes."

Though most of Tom's waking hours are spent in his real estate business, he is active with NSDR in an advisory role and as the treasurer on the 501(c)3's board of directors. "Amanda handles the day-to-day," he tells us. "I take part in the public events where I am needed most. We've also opened our home to foster some of the more challenging dogs. I dedicate a lot of my time outside of real estate to help these dogs transition into a normal life of just being a dog and a companion. It's sometimes difficult and requires a ton of patience, but it's very gratifying to see the progress these dogs make."

He adds, "People sometimes forget that, like humans, many of the dogs we see are traumatized by the 'system' they get caught in. Showing them a loving home life is critical to saving them."

In the very short time the rescue has been operating, 170 dogs have been saved. According to Tom, donations are the "lifeblood of our organization." In addition to donations, NSDR charges a $300 adoption fee for each dog. Though that certainly helps, "it doesn't cover our expenses for vet visits, spaying/neutering, vaccinations, and other medical needs. We have several dogs who have had to have surgeries to improve their sight or correct a deficiency and could have been the reason the dogs were relinquished in the first place. Sometimes, we use our personal funds to cover the costs, and that's one reason real estate has been such a blessing."

Tom goes on to explain that the organization provides crates, beds, food, and supplies to many of their foster parents. "This helps us keep more loving homes when those folks might not be able to afford to do it otherwise."

When asked why the Caples took on such a big task, Tom is quick to answer. "There are too many success stories of dogs that go from no hope to finding amazing families and forever homes. It's almost as if the dogs realize what they've been through and realize they will finally be loved. It's incredibly rewarding."

Of his career in real estate with Coldwell Banker Tomlinson, Tom says, "Coldwell Banker has always been a huge proponent of giving back. It's part of our core values and has given me the opportunity to give back. Coldwell Banker's support and love for animals is longstanding. They have had many national campaigns for bringing homeowners and dogs together. It seems to be a perfect fit for me."

In closing, Tom adds, "It's important to find something that tugs at your heart and contribute what you can, no matter how small. Just do your best to leave this place a little better than you found it."

To help Northern Star Dog Rescue continue its mission, visit them online at https://northernstardogrescue.org/ or on their Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/northernstardogrescue

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Join us in celebrating our Doers of Good by getting involved in one of the programs we will spotlight over the next several months or tell us in the comments below about what lights your fire when it comes to making our communities better. 

July
18

Western Idaho Fair

Since 1897, the Western Idaho Fair has been summer's main event near Boise homes for sale. Find out why our real estate agents expect that this year's version, appropriately dubbed "The Big Social," will once again be the highlight of the season.

Click Here to Read More...

July
15

Coldwell Banker Scores First in Agent Satisfaction. Again.

Confucius said, "Choose a job you love, and you will never have to work a day in your life." 

The real estate professionals across the Coldwell Banker brand are passionate about their industry – and about their brand. For the third time, Coldwell Banker Real Estate ranked #1 in agent satisfaction in the annual "Agent Priorities" report conducted by Quester.

Designed to keep what's important to agents top of mind, the report zeroes in on topics such as work/life balance, brand image, support, tools, and culture. Knowing what makes an agent more likely to stay with a company is a key component in what brokerages can do to foster positive work environments and grow their agents' businesses.

On a local level, Coldwell Banker Tomlinson combines the strength of the national tools with additional services designed to help our Realtors® list, sell, and learn.

Full-time managing brokers are in place to provide immediate assistance. Offices are staffed with Agent Services Experts (ASEs) to help with marketing, paperwork, and training. A company-wide marketing team is in place to create campaigns that support current market trends, listing types, and services.

With continuing education an important aspect of any business, Coldwell Banker Tomlinson offers in-house classes, regular lunch 'n' learn trainings, continuing education at no cost, and national certifications and classes.

To read the results of the report, visit the Coldwell Banker Blue Matter blog.

July
14

 

 

More than 350k Jobs Added to the Economy in June

Job Gains were better than predicted despite a consensus forecast of just 250,000, the economy added 372,000 jobs in June. This growth is right in line with the gains seen over the last few months. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.6%.  This is just above the lowest level since 1969. Average hourly earnings, an indicator of wage growth, were an impressive 5.1% higher than a year ago. Although it was down from an even larger annual rate of increase of 5.3% last month.

Job Gains Show Labor Market Strength

The JOLTS report measures job openings and labor turnover rates. The latest JOLTS report indicated that the labor market remains very tight. At the end of May, there were a massive 11.3 million job openings. This is down a little from the record high in March, but over 4 million more than in January 2020 prior to the pandemic.

There were 1.9 job openings for every unemployed worker. High level of openings reflects a strong labor market, as companies struggle to hire enough workers with the necessary skills. A very large number of employees also willingly left their jobs in January. This signals strength in the labor market. Workers usually quit only if they expect that they can find better jobs.

Job Gains Grew as Did Mortgage Rates

Job gains may mean a stronger labor market, but not necessarily a stronger economy. The minutes from the June 15 Fed meeting released last Wednesday significantly contained no surprises. To help the economy recover from the pandemic, the Fed put in place extremely loose policy measures. With the recent surge in inflation, officials have begun to tighten. The minutes confirmed that fighting inflation is the primary goal now.

Aggressive rate hikes likely will continue, even at the risk of slowing the economy. When the federal funds rate has climbed to a more "neutral" level, meaning it neither boosts nor restrains economic growth. Moreover, officials will evaluate whether to continue tightening to a restrictive stance. The minutes emphasized that the Fed wants to prevent expectations for a long cycle of higher prices from becoming "entrenched."

Looking A Head at Inflation & Retail Sales

Looking ahead, job gains aren't the only thing investors are keeping an eye on. They will continue to look for additional Fed guidance. Investors are keeping an eye on the pace of future rate hikes and bond portfolio reduction. Beyond that, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), was released on Wednesday. CPI is a monthly inflation indicator that looks at price changes for a range of goods and services. Retail Sales will come out on Friday, a key indicator of the health of the economy. Consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.

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We understand that no two paths to buying a home are the same. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer or a seasoned real estate mogul, we have a variety of products and loans designed specifically to meet your needs. We offer local underwriting and fast approvals to save you time and money. We have options for down payments and additional resources like our Finally Home! online program to help guide you through the home buying process. Contact one of our home loan specialists to discuss your options today!

 

July
13

From our Friends at Boise Regional REALTORS®

Median Sales Prices Drop Slightly in June

After passing the $600,000 mark in May 2022, the median sales price for homes in Ada County dropped to $592,090 in June. This was 12.8% higher compared to the same month a year ago. Since 2005, the average year-over-year percent change in home prices in Ada County has been 8.1%.

MSP and Percent Chg YOY - June 2022

The incredible price growth we've seen since the onset of the pandemic was fueled by a rapid increase in demand for housing as people transitioned to remote work, the continued household formation of millennials, and historically low mortgage interest rates. With an already undersupplied housing market prior to the pandemic, prices shot up as demand outpaced supply.

We've seen the buyer pool shrink due to higher mortgage rates and home prices. Cooling demand has given inventory a chance to catch up a bit, giving the remaining buyers more options.

There were 2,135 homes available for sale at the end of June, a 192.9% increase from June 2021, and the highest inventory we've seen since September 2016. Even with the welcome inventory gains, the months supply of inventory in June was 2.4 months. A "balanced" market, or a market that does not favor buyers or sellers, is typically between 4-6 months of supply.

Metrics that indicate competition in the market continued to show signs of normalizing. Focusing on the existing/resale segment, homes that closed last month spent an average of 14 days on the market before going under contract, compared to 10 days in June 2021. Additionally, the average original list price received for existing homes in June was 98.4%, which means that on average, buyers paid less than asking through a lower accepted offer, price reductions, or seller concessions. In June 2021, the average original list price received was 103.9%, which means on average, buyers paid more than the asking price.

The housing market conditions we experienced for the last two years were unique. Historically low inventory, coupled with rampant demand, resulted in above-average price growth and a highly competitive market. The changes we're seeing in price growth, inventory, and slower market times is moving us toward a more normal market — one where bidding wars are the exception and not the rule, and buyers aren't having to make split-second decisions and waive contingencies for their offer to even be considered.

Sales also continued to lag in June. There were 818 closed home sales last month, down 16.0% compared to June 2021, and the fourth month of consecutive year-over-year declines.

As the market shifts, sellers may have to adjust their expectations slightly. Offers may not fly in within the hour or first day you list, and your home may not sell for over list price. This isn't necessarily a bad thing — in fact, it may make your experience less stressful, and sellers are still receiving great value for their homes. Your best bet for selling in today's market is to price your home appropriately, based on the relevant data, comparables, and expertise offered by your real estate agent, and then allow your agent to market your home on the multiple listing service to reach the widest audience possible.

Whether you're ready to buy today or would like to purchase within the next two, five, or even ten years, work with trusted advisors to make a plan to reach your goals. Taking important steps today, such as improving your credit, researching down payment programs, and saving for your down payment in a tax-sheltered savings account can really make a difference when you're ready to make a move.

To view the Treasure Valley homes currently for sale, CLICK HERE.

Disclaimer: All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. All properties are subject to prior sale, change or withdrawal. Neither listing broker(s) or information provider(s) shall be responsible for any typographical errors, misinformation, misprints and shall be held totally harmless. Listing(s) information is provided for consumers personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be interested in purchasing. Information on this site was last updated 08/14/2022. The listing information on this page last changed on 08/14/2022. The data relating to real estate for sale on this website comes in part from the Internet Data Exchange program of INTERMOUNTAIN MLS (last updated Sun 08/14/2022 9:28:58 PM EST). Real estate listings held by brokerage firms other than Coldwell Banker Tomlinson may be marked with the Internet Data Exchange logo and detailed information about those properties will include the name of the listing broker(s) when required by the MLS. All rights reserved. --

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